String 'em along

Japanese hostages not harmed, but not released yet either.

The Turkish Prime Minister is trying to help. Will he be effective? Don't Turkey and Iraq have a little animosity? Or is that limited to Turkey and the Kurds?

We have the mandatory silliness from Turkey:

"Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed on Tuesday to aid Tokyo win the release of three Japanese hostages while urging the world to ease poverty in Iraq , which he called the root of terrorism. "

and

"I think the Iraqi issue cannot be resolved with military means," he said. "If there are extra funds, rather than use them to buy weapons, we hope they can be allocated to alleviate poverty.

"In the end it will be useful in eradicating terrorism," Erdogan said.

But if that were true, the Japanese hostages would never have been captured in the first place.

Agence France-Presse quotes repeatedly from some Japan opposition Democratic party member named Fujita, who repeatedly states he doesn't know what's going on. Well, then . . . why . . . o, never mind!

Democratic party for appeasement. Cheez, it's the same all over.

Agence France Press also gives us this tidbit:

"Koizumi reiterated that, despite the desperate pleas of relatives, his government would not bow to the demands of kidnappers or pull its troops out of Iraq.

Even so, Japan has three C-130 cargo planes in Kuwait ready to evacuate Japanese nationals from Iraq, a defence spokesman said."

I would expect Japan to be inclined to get their civilians out of Iraq with all possible speed, especially the ones who have been held hostage. I suppose I should also expect that a news agency is, like the terrorists, incapable of distinguishing between terrorists, soldiers, and civilians, but it still surprises me.

LA Times, which I do not subscribe to and so can't access, has a headline that says "Cheney says the US will help." I should hope so.

The Chinese hostages have been released. Don't know yet who they were, why they were taken, or why or how they were released. They are being looked after by "the Association of Islamic Clerics." Doesn't sound safe to me . .

Ukrainan and Russian hostages have also been released. Whoever kidnapped them won't admit it.

My hunch: these are not terrorist kidnappings; these are your ordinary, everyday, bumblef**k thugs trying to make a quick buck or impress the chicks with their bravado. We are in for this sort of thing in spades until about July 5, shortly after the Iraq transition begins. It'll then die down for a few months, but surge with even greater vengence in the 2-3 months before the US elections.

After the US elections? Well, if Kerry wins, we won't really know what happens in Iraq because media attention will no longer be focused there. We will, however, see an increase in general, worldwide terrorism as the vile islamofascits will believe - possibly with justification - that they can not only get away with it, but even accomplish goals. As Kerry transfers US sovereignty to the UN, we will also see an increase in domestic terrorism of the Terry McVeigh type.

If Bush wins, we see a mad blast of desparate, take-no-prisoners, give-no-quarter 'insurgency' in Iraq. Iraq will be constantly in the news, and the media will be pushing heavily for withdrawal. If Bush and co. can hold firm in the face of ANSWER and the NY Slimes, Iraq will breathe fairly freely by - say, December 2005, plus or minus a couple months. We will have constant skirmishes for another generation or two.

If we withdraw under a Bush administration due to media pressure, Iraq will plunge into civil war and the media will constantly play it up. Afghanistan will probably also revert. Worldwide terrorism will increase. The media will play it up and play it up, and by the time they and their weenie academic friends actually face reality, it will be too late to recover.

Just my hunch. We'll see.

Update: Instapundit points to The Belmont Club for a discussion on journalists' kidnappings that makes you go 'hmmmmmmm.'